Rabobank: Global animal protein outlook 2024
Some market conditions should improve in 2024 as input costs ease and as some consumers become more used to the uncertainties around them. However, other changes in market conditions are structural in nature rather than cyclical and so will add ongoing costs and changes – creating some opportunities and some risks.
"For companies to sustain the success of the past few years, it’s essential that they adapt to the structural changes in the market. Instead of simply riding out the storm, animal protein businesses need to take stock of their strengths and prepare to transition their supply chains to operating in an environment with high costs and tight margins. Companies should double down on improving their productivity, review their existing portfolios, strengthen supply chain partnerships, increase investment in new product development, and adjust their pricing strategies to navigate the challenges of the coming year", says Justin Sherrard, Global Strategist - Animal Protein.
Although it is slowing, production growth will still be relatively robust in Brazil, will marginally increase in China and Oceania, and will actually accelerate in Southeast Asia, while contracting in other markets. While beef, pork, and wild catch seafood are down, poultry and aquaculture show the strongest growth across the species.
North America
Beef production in the US continues to contract with the cycle, overshadowing changes in other species. Poultry will benefit from consumer preferences, while pork still needs to rebalance. The outlook for Mexico is slightly more positive.
Europe
There are ongoing production pressures for all species, given disease risks, market- and regulatory-driven production system changes, and lower exports. Poultry consumption is set to grow, while pork and beef will decline.
China
Slow consumption will continue to pressure the animal protein system in 2024. Poultry is best placed, with steady growth in production and consumption. Pork and beef markets will remain under most pressure, as the market is well supplied, at least in 1H 2024.
Brazil
Production is set to grow for all species, supported by export opportunities. Pork will grow fastest, followed by poultry. Disease remains a downside risk, especially for poultry.
Southeast Asia
The recovering economic situation and easing of disease pressures should support production growth in 2024. Pork leads growth, although is subject to ongoing ASF pressure, followed by poultry. Beef will only see minor change from 2023.
Australia & New Zealand
The rebuilding of Australia’s beef herd means production and exports will grow in 2024. New Zealand’s production is expected to slow slightly for beef and expand slightly for sheepmeat.
Salmon
2024 will be an inflection point for supply. Prices will soften mildly but will remain at elevated levels, continuing the period of high margins.
Shrimp
2024 remains full of uncertainty. Shrimp faces a difficult oversupply situation, which can only be resolved by lower supply or higher demand.
Alternative protein
Consolidation of products and companies is underway and will continue in 2024.
Aquafeed
Potential minibans may affect the pace of fishing. El Niño is likely to persist through 1H 2024, and price normalization of fish meal depends on catch rates.
Feed and forage
Feed price relief will continue into 2024. Falling costs are helping to restore margins, but outside factors continue to add uncertainty.
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