Rabobank: How the Middle East crisis could impact the local and global poultry industry
The poultry sector in the Middle East—including Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkey—plays an increasingly critical role in the growth of the global poultry industry. Although it represents only 8% of the global market size and nearly 15% of world trade, the region supports approximately 10% of global production growth, driven by population growth, rising chicken consumption, and food security programs.
Massive disruptions in the supply chain
The outbreak of war in Iran has destabilized supply chains, trade flows, and the availability of raw materials (inputs), exerting pressure on import markets, especially those with a high degree of dependency. Although local production has become more resilient due to major investments made in the Persian Gulf region, vulnerable countries such as Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Bahrain, and the UAE continue to face heightened risks.
Impact on global exporters: Challenges for Brazil
World exporters, particularly Brazil (the largest supplier of chicken meat to the region), will face significant commercial challenges regarding logistics and market access. On the other hand, local producers in the Middle East could temporarily benefit from higher prices, provided that their production activities can be sustained.
Overall, the duration and intensity of the conflict's escalation will determine the extent of the disruptions for regional industries and international suppliers.
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