Rabobank: Pork prices expected to remain high
The largest decreases were observed in Denmark (-21%) and the United Kingdom (-17%), followed by the Netherlands (-12%), Germany (-9%), Spain (-7%), Poland (- 7%), France (-6%) and Italy (-5%). For the available quantity of pork in Europe from January to April 2023, Rabobank calculated a minus of around 7% compared to the same period of the previous year.
The fact that this volume has fallen less than the production volume is due to the fact that exports from the EU to third countries have also fallen by 18% or 250,000 t - in particular to the Philippines (-62,000 t), to South Korea (-34,000 t) , the United States (-25,000 t) and Japan (-16,000 t). Exports to China remained at an acceptable level in the first four months of the year, down only 4%. For the second half of the year, however, the market experts at Rabobank anticipate lower demand from China.
In addition to the low supply, the Rabobank experts see the reduced feed costs as an important factor for good profitability of pig farming in the coming months. The reactions of the feed and grain markets to the grain deal that was not extended between Ukraine and Russia have so far been manageable. The effects of the blockade of the Black Sea routes are also less than a year ago and Ukraine has now also opened up alternative export routes via the Danube. Nevertheless, the situation there should lead to an increased price risk. The dry weather conditions in the US, Canada and the EU would also have a negative impact on yields.
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