Rabobank: Pork production benefits from lower costs, while trade faces geopolitical challenges
Ongoing trade negotiations continue to fuel instability in global pork markets, particularly between the US and China. Although China has scaled back imports from the US in recent years – largely due to increased local production - it remains a significant importer of US pork variety meats. The outcome of current negotiations between the two countries could have far-reaching implications for global trade. Meanwhile, Brazil’s rapid export growth and a modest uptick in European shipments in 2025 are intensifying competition for new markets.
Herd health remains a key concern for producers worldwide. African swine fever (ASF) continues to spread in parts of Asia and Europe, while porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus (PRRSv) hampers productivity in North America and Spain. Foot and mouth disease (FMD) adds further uncertainty to trade. Advanced biosecurity, automation, and unmanned operations help mitigate these risks.
CBOT corn prices continue to fall on the back of favorable US weather conditions and a strong corn crop in Brazil. Soybean and soymeal markets, however, show mixed signals. The US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) proposed biofuel mandates for 2026 and 2027 support soybean prices, while exerting downward pressure on prices of soymeal.
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