Rabobank expects pork prices to rise in 2025
The biggest decline in a country comparison is predicted for the Netherlands, where the pig population is expected to fall by 10-15%. The most important reason is state farm purchase programmes as part of environmental policy. This is one of the reasons why the Dutch sow population had already declined by 6.3% in June 2024 compared to December 2023.
According to analysts, pig farmers in many EU countries are facing high epidemic pressure on their livestock, such as porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and African swine fever (ASF).
Rabobank expects EU pork prices to rise in the medium term in view of the likely tight supply of pork combined with a seasonal increase in demand.
However, future EU pork exports are subject to great uncertainty due to the threat of anti-dumping measures from China. For this reason, meat companies are refraining from raising prices, especially when exporting to Asia.
Taking into account the economic situation of pig farmers, Dutch experts predict a slight increase in feed prices for the fourth quarter of 2024. The drought in important corn and soybean producing areas in North and South America is cited as the cause. In addition, the total production costs of many companies are likely to continue to rise.
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