Rabobank identifies key factors that will impact the poultry sector in the short term
These factors represent a significant potential impact on global trade and the dynamics of the global poultry market, and will therefore remain key themes in the outlook for the second half of the year. While expectations are positive thanks to strong poultry and egg prices and stable feed costs, geopolitical tensions and an uncertain economic outlook threaten to hinder growth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global GDP growth forecast downward to 0.5%, a situation exacerbated by rising oil prices. These factors, combined with outbreaks of avian flu, are generating negative effects on international markets, leading Rabobank to lower its growth forecast for global poultry production to a range between 2% and 2.5%.
The report also highlights that, following the imposition and subsequent postponement of tariffs by the United States, the risk of a trade war remains. If agreements are reached, the US poultry sector could increase its global market share, possibly to the detriment of other producers. Conversely, a prolonged trade dispute would benefit alternative exporters such as Brazil, Thailand, Russia, and the European Union, although with potential inflationary repercussions in vulnerable regions such as Asia and Africa.
Furthermore, the avian flu outbreak in Brazil has had a significant impact, blocking nearly 40% of its exports to key markets. Hatching egg supplies have also been affected by outbreaks in several regions, posing a challenge for countries dependent on these imports, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Limited supply is expected to continue in the coming months, impacting the stability and development of global poultry trade.
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