Rabobank sees opportunities for EU offal to China
The US import tariffs will likely have only a minor impact on European Union pork exports, according to a recent analysis by Rabobank. However, the trade war between the United States and China is likely to shift the flow of goods on the international market for slaughterhouse by-products.
The Dutch analysts base their assessment on the likely low direct impact of the 10% US import tariffs, arguing that the EU has exported relatively little pork to the US in recent years. The relevant quantity for 2024 amounted to around 95,000 tonnes, corresponding to only 2% of the Union's total pork exports. Of the exports to the US, 31,000 tonnes came from Denmark, 18,000 tonnes from Poland, and 15,000 tonnes each from Spain and Italy. In addition, the Netherlands, Ireland, and Hungary exported 8,000 tonnes, 5,000 tonnes, and 2,000 tonnes, respectively. Germany was only a distant second.
Meanwhile, the ongoing trade war between the US and China could open up new sales opportunities for the EU. The supply gap that has opened up in China, particularly for by-products, could be closed, among other things, by deliveries from the EU. In 2024, China imported around 310,000 tonnes of slaughterhouse by-products from the US, corresponding to a good quarter of China's total imports of this product group. This made the United States the second-largest supplier after the EU, which accounted for around 580,000 tonnes.
In addition, China imported around 80,000 tons of pork and processed products from the United States last year – a share of total Chinese imports of this commodity group is estimated at 6%. However, this shortfall is likely to be replaced by Brazilian goods, which Rabobank estimates are more price-competitive than pork from the EU.
Brazil was China's second-largest source of pork and processed products in 2024, with a total of around 240,000 tons. While the EU ranked first with around 520,000 tons, expanding this volume is currently quite risky given the ongoing Chinese anti-dumping investigations.
Furthermore, Dutch experts expect that overall EU exports of pork and offal will not increase. Rabobank cites the decline in pig production in Northwest Europe as the reason. Against this backdrop, producer prices have risen since the end of March.
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