Restocking squeeze easing as input costs fears abate
In-depth analysis by Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC) experts of Phase 2 of the Farmer Intentions Survey – a survey conducted by HCC and completed by sheep and beef producers across Wales - shows a considerable improvement in producer intentions, despite the annual June survey results showing a notable fall in Welsh flock numbers. Some 75% of Welsh farms are now expected to maintain or increase stock numbers in the short term according to the results from Phase 2, and therefore lamb numbers are estimated to stabilize somewhat from the low recorded in June 2023.
HCC believes this to reflect a positive shift in confidence, compared with the same time last year, when uncertainty over high input costs influenced 43% of Welsh livestock farmers to consider reducing stocking levels during Phase 1 of HCC’s survey conducted in September 2022.
During Phase 1, worries around costs were prominent. "Due to high farm input costs, it was anticipated that there would be higher culling rates and therefore fewer ewes for breeding during the time that followed", said Glesni Phillips, HCC’s Intelligence, Analysis and Business Insight Executive. "Along with fewer breeding ewes, scanning rates were also reportedly low at the start of this year due to poor weather and ewe conditions".
"These worries have been reflected in the results of the latest June survey - the Welsh Government’s Survey of Agriculture and Horticulture - which shows the number of lambs on the ground aged under one year was at 4.1million head as of 2023, down 10% on the year, and the total number of sheep and lambs stood at 8.7 million head, down some seven per cent on the year", said Glesni. "“This figure is the lowest number of sheep and lambs recorded since 2009 when numbers reached 8.2 million head".
"While the Wales figures, like those in England and Scotland, reflect quite a dip in flock numbers, the results from Phase Two are considerably more positive than they were 12 months ago. This would suggest that sheep numbers should stabilize somewhat further down the line" said Glesni.
The Welsh Government survey findings mean the 8.7million Welsh flock was 26% below Wales’ peak of 11.8million head in 1999. 2023 figures from England show the flock declined by 3.2% year-on-year to 14.5 million head, the lowest recorded population since 2011, while in Scotland sheep numbers fell by two percent when compared with the 5-year average to 6.6million head.
Glesni said HCC’s Phase 2 of the survey had indicated lamb producer concerns over input costs had been overtaken by other challenges within the sector such as changes to direct payments, agricultural policy and government support schemes.
Looking at the beef sector, the Phase 2 of the survey had revealed a similar positive stocking position for beef farmers, where 65% now say they will maintain or improve stocking levels compared to last year’s 47% considering reducing stock.
The June survey data shows there was a small one per cent fall in the Welsh herd size, with total cattle and calves falling from 1.13million to 1.12million head. The beef breeding herd was down 4.7% on the year to 149,290 head, and the dairy breeding herd was down 0.5% to 254,700 head.
"The dairy breeding herd had recorded three consecutive years of increased numbers before recording this small fall in 2023, with beef producers stating that farm input costs continue to put pressure on their business intentions", concluded Glesni.
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