Severe weather condition to impact UK's breeding flock
Severe weather condition registered this year in the UK is going to impact the national breeding flock, predicts an analysis of Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.
The poor conditions during lambing caused an increase in ewe and lamb mortality. Not only will this lead to a smaller lamb crop despite an estimated increase in the breeding flock, but also the number of ewes available to put back to the ram in the autumn is also likely to be reduced.
Back in 1995, when the weather condition was comparable to those registered this year, the year ended with a 2% decline reported in the breeding flock. The breeding flock then recorded another year of decline in 1996.
With many breeding flocks smaller than expected after lambing this year, there are now several paths that farmers may take. For example, keeping older ewes on for another year, keeping more lambs back for future breeding, or contracting the flock. All will have some negative effect on production either this year or beyond.
Keeping older ewes on for another year could have implications for the lamb rear rate next year. Scanning numbers may be higher in older ewes, as long as body condition is good, but there is an increased risk of ewe mortality. They may have teeth problems so maintaining body condition may be challenging, plus there is an increased risk of udder problems, which would affect lamb growth rates. This could affect mutton production this year and have an impact on the number of available lambs for slaughter next year.
Additional lambs may be retained for home-bred replacements or to sell on. This would negatively affect lamb production this year as more ewe lambs are retained, and production next year could be affected if the age profile of the national flock declined significantly, as scanning results may be affected. However, the poor availability of grass and forage this autumn may reduce the numbers retained or the number that will be bred as ewe lambs, as weight targets may not be reached, explained the analysts.
In the end, flock contraction is unavoidable and the dimension of it depends on a series of decisions taken by farmers. Nevertheless, the lack of grass growth has already impacted lamb production and sheep meat exports.
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