Sharp fall in value to the US contributed to decline in Norwegian seafood exports in January
"Lower salmon prices, a weaker US dollar, reduced quotas for several wild fish species and tougher competition in important markets meant that Norwegian seafood exports fell in January," says Christian Chramer, CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
In January last year, the USA was our largest single market. One year later, the value of exports has fallen by 37 per cent, and the country has been overtaken by Poland, the Netherlands and China on the list of Norway's largest single markets.
Demanding trade situation
“High and unpredictable tariffs and a weaker dollar have created great uncertainty and challenges in the USA, which remains our largest fillet market for both salmon and trout. The demanding trade situation is something we are seeing the consequences of now," explains Christian Chramer.
The importance of the USA as a fillet market has already had consequences for the Norwegian fillet industry. After an 8 per cent growth in export volumes for salmon and trout fillets last year, exports fell by as much as 9 per cent in January compared with the same month last year.
“This has consequences for large parts of the seafood industry. Uncertainty is widespread, and the global seafood trade is so closely intertwined that this will have an impact across several species and markets," says Chramer.
Norway's 10 largest markets
Here are the 10 largest markets in January in terms of value (changes compared with January last year in brackets):
"For the first time ever, the export value of salmon to China exceeded NOK 1 billion in a single month, so strong demand is cushioning some of the impact of the US downturn," says Chramer.
Europe increases its market share
In January, the European market increased its share of total Norwegian seafood exports from 62 per cent to 66 per cent compared with the same month last year.
“Growth to Poland stood out in January. This is traditionally a processing market, but now they are also eating more salmon themselves," explains Chramer.
The Norwegian krone strengthened significantly against the US dollar and several important Asian currencies in January compared with the same month last year.
“This helped to dampen the value of exports measured in Norwegian kroner. A stronger krone makes Norwegian seafood more expensive in the USA and Japan, for example," says Chramer.
Quota reductions affect prices and export volumes
Quotas for several wild-caught species have been further reduced this year. Exports in January were therefore characterised by high prices and declining volumes for mackerel, saithe and prawns.
“For mackerel, we have to go all the way back to 1990 to find a lower export volume, and this is now being felt throughout the value chain. The battle for raw materials has never been tougher, which is demanding for the onshore industry," explains Christian Chramer.
Fall in value for salmon
Poland had the highest growth in value in January, with an increase in export value of NOK 424 million, or 42 per cent, compared with the same month last year.
The export volume to Poland ended at 17,071 tonnes, which is 71 per cent higher than the same month last year.
Major changes in the flow of goods
“The export volume for salmon increased significantly in January, with major changes in the flow of goods to different markets. We must go back to 2021 to see similar changes," says seafood analyst Paul T. Aandahl of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Favourable production conditions have resulted in higher volumes, while uncertainty in world trade and a weak dollar have shifted exports from the US to Asia, especially China, and Poland, which is the largest EU market for processing Norwegian salmon.
Decline in exports of fresh fillets
"The USA is still Norway's most important market for fillets, but due to customs duties and a weaker dollar, exports of fresh fillets to the USA have fallen by 37 per cent," explains Aandahl.
For frozen fillets, the decline is 22 per cent to the US, while total exports have fallen by 6 per cent.
"Reduced market access is a strong contributing factor to the fact that the proportion of salmon exported as processed goods has fallen from 26 per cent in January last year to 20 per cent this year," explains Paul T. Aandahl.
Strong growth in China
China was Norway's second largest growth market in January, measured in volume and value. Only Poland was larger.
A total of 10,997 tonnes of salmon products were exported to China, with a value of NOK 1 billion. The volume increased by 86 per cent, while the value increased by 34 per cent.
“The last two weeks have been particularly strong. Prices for Norwegian salmon have been significantly lower in January compared with the same month last year, so we can expect to have gained market share," says Sigmund Bjørgo, the Norwegian Seafood Council's envoy to China.
Chinese New Year brings optimism
Export growth must be seen in the context of Chinese New Year, which is a strong season for salmon consumption in China both before and during the celebrations.
“Many producers are now marketing gift packs of salmon. This year, Chinese New Year is on 16 February, three weeks later than last year, and there are official holidays from 15 February to 23 February. We can therefore expect the market to remain strong in the coming weeks," says Bjørgo.
Reduced market access affects US exports
Salmon exports to the USA in January fell by NOK 415 million, or 37 per cent, compared with the same month last year.
“The tariff effect has now had a clear impact on Norwegian salmon exports. After a moderate decline of 1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, there was a volume drop of 29 per cent in January. This shows that market access has been significantly weakened and that Norwegian exporters are facing tougher competition from countries that do not have a 15 per cent tariff," says Karine Rød Haraldsson, the Norwegian Seafood Council's envoy to the USA.
Decline in volume and value for trout
Poland had the highest growth in value in January, with an increase in export value of NOK 98 million, or 220 per cent, compared with the same month last year.
The export volume to Poland ended at 1,660 tonnes, which is 202 per cent higher than the same month last year.
Good January for fresh cod
For fresh farmed cod, the export volume increased by 8 per cent to 1,436 tonnes, while the export value increased by 18 per cent to NOK 109 million.
Farmed cod accounted for 34 per cent of the export value of fresh cod in January.
Record high prices
“Landings of fresh cod increased significantly compared with January last year. However, this did not affect the export volume for fresh wild cod, which remained unchanged from 2025 at 1,900 tonnes," says Eivind Hestvik Brækkan, Seafood Analyst with the Norwegian Seafood Council.
The export value of fresh wild cod increased by 21 per cent to NOK 208 million.
"With the lowest cod quotas since 1991, fresh wild cod has become an increasingly exclusive product, and the start of this year's cod season is characterised by record-high prices. It can be challenging to make up for this in a sensitive fresh market," says Brækkan.
Solid start to the cod season
After a significant drop in volume last year, this year's season for quality-branded skrei is starting with solid volume growth, with our largest consumer market, Spain, leading the way with the highest growth.
Seventy-one tonnes of quality labelled skrei were exported to Spain in January, which is more than a threefold increase from last year.
Are consumers willing to pay extra for labelled skrei?
“Much of the export volume to the Danish transit market will probably also end up in Spain in the end. Developments over the next few months will be characterised by the low cod quotas. The question will be whether consumers are willing to pay extra for cod labelling when cod prices are already at a record high," says seafood analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
The price of quality-labelled cod is at a record high of NOK 113 per kg, which is NOK 11 per kg higher than for fresh whole wild cod without the quality label.
The export price is NOK 5 per kg higher than in the previous record month, which was January last year.
Decline for frozen cod
Landings of frozen cod fell in January, which is also reflected in the export statistics.
"After the US tariff break with China, we had expected export volumes to China to pick up this year, but it is Vietnam that stands out with the greatest growth in value in January," says seafood analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
The value of exports to Vietnam increased by NOK 80 million, or 235 per cent, compared with the same month last year.
The export volume to Vietnam ended at 1,055 tonnes, which is 141 per cent higher than in the same month last year.
Vietnam is a processing market for frozen cod and re-exports most of its cod as frozen fillets to the USA and the UK.
Value growth for clipfish
For saithe clipfish, export volumes fell by 24 per cent to 4,045 tonnes, while export value fell by 5 per cent to NOK 283 million.
For clipfish from cod, the export volume increased by 63 per cent to 1,585 tonnes, while the export value increased by 77 per cent to NOK 284 million.
"Brazil was the largest market for clipfish in January. It is our only major clipfish market where we export different types of clipfish," says seafood analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Largest increase to Portugal
Saithe dominated with 1,700 tonnes of a total export volume of 2,750 tonnes, while cod was the only species with volume growth to Brazil.
The export volume of cod increased by 3 per cent to 312 tonnes in January.
The export value of all clipfish to Brazil ended at NOK 254 million in January, down 11 per cent compared with the same month last year.
Portugal saw the greatest growth in value in January, with an increase in export value of NOK 112 million, or 176 per cent, compared with the same month last year.
The export volume to Portugal ended at 1,011 tonnes, which is 137 per cent higher than in the same month last year.
"We have to go back to 2023 to find a similar volume to Portugal in the month of January," explains Brækkan.
Increased competition from China
Lower cod quotas and demanding fishing for saithe are reducing access to raw materials in Norway.
“This will characterise this year's season. Although higher prices can compensate for some of the fall in volume, it also creates challenges in the markets. Price increases for Norwegian clipfish make other alternatives more attractive, and we see, for example, that there were increased export volumes of salted and dried products from China to Brazil, Portugal and the Dominican Republic last year," says Brækkan.
Strong month for salted fish
“January usually has low export volumes, but higher landings of fresh cod at the end of last year may have resulted in increased production of salted cod in recent months. This could possibly explain the increase in export volumes," says seafood analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Portugal was the market with the greatest growth in value in January, with an increase in export value of NOK 69 million, or 229 per cent, compared with the same month last year.
The export volume to Portugal ended at 723 tonnes, which is 122 per cent higher than in the same month last year.
Volume decline for stockfish
The export volume for cod stockfish fell by 19 per cent to 256 tonnes, while the export value for cod stockfish remained unchanged at NOK 110 million.
"As usual, Italy is by far our largest market for cod stockfish.
Export volumes to Italy fell by 20 per cent in January to 211 tonnes, while the export value fell by 1 per cent to NOK 93 million.
“In recent years, exports of stockfish have fallen in line with lower cod quotas, and future developments will probably also be characterised by the quota reduction," says seafood analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan at the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Solid start to the year for herring
January was a very strong month for herring catches.
“With a 33 per cent higher quota compared to last year and very good fishing, 121,000 tonnes were landed in January. We have to go back to 2012 to find higher landing figures. This is fuelling exports," says Jan Eirik Johnsen, head of pelagic species at the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Norwegian spring-spawning herring is the bright spot in a demanding time
There is stable and good demand for the largest fillet products, which maintain a stable price in euros even though volumes are increasing. Poland and Lithuania are the largest markets.
“There was also solid volume growth for whole frozen herring, with Egypt and Nigeria as the largest markets. Egypt has long been a large and important market for whole frozen herring, while Nigeria comes in when small herring at low prices are available," explains Johnsen.
"It's good to see that both herring catches and exports are at a good level. For the pelagic industry, these are demanding times with a sharp decline in quotas for several species. Norwegian spring-spawning herring (NVG) is the bright spot, so it's good that the fishery is doing well," says Jan Eirik Johnsen.
Sharp fall in exports of mackerel
The mackerel quota has been reduced by as much as 53 per cent compared with last year, which will affect both catches and exports this year.
"In addition, the UK has introduced a requirement for its own boats to land at least 70 per cent of their mackerel catches in their own country. This will deprive the Norwegian industry of the opportunity to compete for the raw material and will further affect exports from Norway," says Jan Eirik Johnsen, head of pelagic species at the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Lowest volume in 36 years
In January, only 7,500 tonnes of mackerel were landed in Norway.
"We have to go way back to find such a low figure. Exports of 9,000 tonnes in January are also at a historically low level. We have to go back to 1990 to find a lower export volume in January," explains Johnsen.
Prices are still high compared with previous years, and compared with January 2025, the price of whole frozen mackerel under 600 grams is 65 per cent higher. At the same time, the price fell slightly from December.
Expecting a significant drop in consumption
"2026 will be a very unusual year for mackerel. The global supply is not sufficient to meet demand, and prices have therefore risen sharply. The effect of this price increase has not yet been fully realised in the consumer markets, but this will result in a significant drop in consumption," says Jan Eirik Johnsen.
"This is a demanding situation for the industry in Norway and the local value chain, and it is difficult to say what the short-term and long-term effects will be. Norwegian mackerel is doing well in several markets, but the new price level will contribute to mackerel competing with other species than before," says Jan Eirik Johnsen.
Challenging month for king crab
King crab exports got off to a weak start in 2026, particularly for frozen products.
In January, 6 tonnes of frozen king crab were exported, which is a decrease of 92 per cent compared with the same month last year. The export value fell from NOK 65 million to NOK 4 million.
“The USA, which dominated exports of frozen king crab in January last year, took almost no quantities this year. The reduced quota also means that available volumes are building up more slowly than normal and naturally contributes to lower exports in the first month of the year," says Josefine Voraa, head of shellfish at the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Increased supply of Alaska king crab
The decline in exports to the USA is also linked to increased supply of Alaskan king crab, zero tariffs for US importers and increased political uncertainty linked to warnings of possible tariff increases on Norwegian seafood.
Live king crab accounted for the main volume in January with 41 tonnes, down 56 per cent from last year, and a value of NOK 24 million.
Prices fell from NOK 637 per kg to NOK 587 per kg in Norwegian kroner, but increased from 56 per kg to 59 per kg in dollar terms.
Strong January for snow crab
Snow crab exports saw strong volume growth in January compared with the same month last year.
“The increase is largely due to the fact that there was more snow crab available this year than at the same time last year," says Josefine Voraa, head of shellfish at the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Despite the higher volume, prices fell. The average price of frozen snow crab fell from NOK 200 per kg to NOK 153 per kg, a decrease of 24 per cent in Norwegian kroner and 13 per cent in dollar terms.
Introduction of customs duties dampens demand
“The price drop is related to the fact that there is more snow crab in stock in the USA this year than at the same time last year. In addition, Norway now has a 15 per cent duty, compared with zero duty last year. This dampens demand for imported goods and affects the market distribution," explains Voraa.
Increased uncertainty related to customs duties also characterised exports out of Norway in January.
“This is reflected in the fact that 93 per cent of exports went to the US in January last year, while this year the proportion has fallen to 38 per cent. At the same time, a larger proportion of the volume went to the Netherlands, which is a hub for onward exports to either the USA or Asia," says Josefine Voraa.
Decline in volume and value for prawns
The prawn fishing season is not yet fully underway and there are fewer frozen raw materials in stock than at the same time last year.
“This has resulted in a decline in prawn export volumes in the first month of the year compared with a strong January last year," explains Josefine Voraa, Head of Shellfish at the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Strong decline for frozen products
The decline is particularly evident for frozen products. Frozen raw and frozen cooked prawns fell from 684 tonnes in January last year to 14 tonnes this year.
Frozen peeled prawns, the most important product group, fell by 60 per cent in volume to 364 tonnes, while the value ended at NOK 40 million, a decline of 50 per cent. At the same time, the price increased from NOK 88 per kg to NOK 110 per kg, an increase of 24 per cent.
“Several product groups show the same pattern, with low volumes and increased prices. The overall price level for Norwegian prawn products rose by 62 per cent, reflecting lower supply and higher raw material costs," says Josefine Voraa.
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