Sow herd in China is 13% below pre-ASF crisis
The recovery in the Chinese pig herd had added 7 million sows in the last 12 months. Data from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas indicates that the reproductive sow herd numbered approximately 26 million head in October, up from approximately 19 million a year ago. The same data indicates that the sow herd was over 30 million when ASF was discovered, having been in decline for some years.
Nevertheless, the numbers may not be so important as the recovery in pork production may increase faster thanks to more productive and biosecure units. "China had already been moving away from “backyard” pig farming before the ASF outbreak, and the management of the disease will ultimately accelerate this progress. Improvements in supply chain logistics are also reported to be taking place. Pre-ASF sow numbers may not be needed to produce pre-ASF amounts of pig meat," explained Duncan Wyatt, Lead Analyst - Red Meat, AHDB. Production in China is expected to grow by 9% in 2021 as sow herds are rebuilt following the outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in the country, according to the latest USDA outlook. "If the USDA forecast were to materialise, although import demand will remain higher than usual in the near term, China’s pork imports would fall by 6% to 4.5 million tonnes in 2021. This would put an estimated 300,000 tonnes of pork back onto the world market," added Mr Wyatt.
China is aiming to become 95% self-sufficient in pork over the next couple of years.
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