The Chinese swine sector counts $70 billion in losses
A recent analysis from Financial Times talks about massive losses for publicly owned swine companies in China. This may have a huge impact on pig production next year. Recently, a USDA outlook presents a scenario in which China’s hog production will decline 14% in 2022 caused by ASF, other health issues, and contraction in China’s hog production due to financial losses. "14% is a decrease of about 1.8 million heads a week", said Jim Long, President and CEO of Genesus. Data released by China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) reveals that the average current loss per head is $160 . "In the first 6 months of the year, China averaged just under 13 million hogs marketed per week. Farmer Arithmetic; $160 per head loss average, times 13 million head equals just over $2 billion U.S. a week loss?" wonders Mr Long.
In his opinion, this type of loss will be leading to huge liquidation and obviously ending most if not all construction. The loss level is unprecedented; no wonder reports of pigs dying without feed, bills unpaid, biosecurity being cut, disease increasing. "We expect China will be cutting production at levels we can’t comprehend. The USDA projected decrease of 14% is probably not high enough. China imports from the USA just under 5,000 tonnes of pork in the latest week. One thing this confirms, China is not bringing in much pork," he added.
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