The Philippines worst-case scenario on ASF outbreaks looks like Vietnam
The worst-case scenario for the Philippines in containing the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak looks like the situation in Vietnam or China, appreciated Philippine Institute for Development Studies Research Fellow Roehlano M. Briones in an interview for Business World.
"Best-case scenario, minimal effect. Worst-case scenario, this is as bad as what is happening in Vietnam and China, causing very significant damage to the livestock industry," he declared.
Until now, the Filipino authorities have culled more than 7,000 pigs as a first measure to stop the disease from spreading in the country but 70 dead carcasses have been recently found in rivers and irrigation canals near Quezon City and Malolos.
In China, the first outbreak occurred in August 2018 and official sources confirmed the culling of 1.17 million pigs even if independent observers believe that the real number is much higher. In Vietnam, since March, 4.6 million pigs have been culled.
By now, the pig industry in China has lost more than 30% of its inventory, while the decline in Vietnam is estimated at 20%. According to FAO and OIE experts, Asian countries have little chances to correctly manage an ASF crisis due to a large number of backyard farms in the region and the constant movement of people on the continent.
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