The tides are shifting: How the AI and the Brazilian meat scandal are shaping the global poultry trade
RaboResearch Senior Animal Protein Analyst Nan-Dirk Mulder says that although the global poultry trade has reached record-high levels, the trade steams have shifted. The US and Thailand had much to gain due to AI-related restrictions and the impacts of the meat scandal in Brazil. Furthermore, the European exporters have also gained ground, taking some of the Middle East trade.
The report also shows that the mixture between strong demand, restricted supply, and ongoing low feed costs led to good performances in most of the global markets.The poultry industries from Mexico, India, Thailand and Japan have seen strong performance, whilst South Africa and the EU continue to recover.
The situation in China seems to be also improving as the prices have recently recovered somewhat, but the human AI cases are still spreading and have a big impact on the poultry market. Rabobank analysts are concerned about the spreading of the AI virus across the country, with recent movements to northern regions. The AI crisis has had a particularly big impact on the yellow-bird market. On the other hand, Chinese imports were relatively unaffected, "as they serve the processed meat market," the Rabobank’s Global Poultry Quarterly for Q2 2017 report shows.
An additional shift in global trade streams was caused by the Brazilian meat scandal which had a significant effect on markets all around the world. Exports from Brazil have seen a significant drop since March, according to the report.
Rabobank analysts conclude that aside from the AI problems and the Brazilian meat scandal "a potentially big—but still uncertain—development could be the entry of Chinese cooked chicken into the US market."
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