USDA: Mixed Global 2023 Trade Outlook for Beef, Pork, and Chicken Meat
Brazil beef exports are forecast higher on tighter exportable supplies from its major competitors, Argentina and Uruguay, which will support growing shipments to China. Brazil pork exports are forecast higher on price competitiveness and increased opportunities in China, Chile, and Japan as these markets reduce imports from the EU. Brazil chicken meat exports are forecast to rise due to its role as a supplier of a wide range of products to an array of markets. Brazil exportable supplies will be buoyed by moderately lower feed prices.
Beef and Veal
Global production is forecast virtually unchanged in 2023 at 59.1 million tons as falling U.S. production offsets increases in Australia, Brazil, China, and India. Outside the United States, beef production is forecast to increase 1 percent as elevated global beef prices induce more slaughter. Greater feed availability and improved pastures in Australia will support heavier carcass weights, boosting production by 10 percent. Brazil production is forecast to increase 2 percent as packers slaughter more cattle amid lower calf prices and a firmer domestic market. China production is forecast up 3 percent as the lifting of COVID-related restrictions increases foodservice demand. Lastly, India production is up 2 percent on export demand and marginally higher domestic consumption. Global exports are forecast fractionally higher in 2023 at 12.1 million tons as lower U.S. exports fully offset growth from Brazil, Australia, and India. Outside the United States, global exports are anticipated to increase 2 percent. While China beef consumption is forecast 2 percent higher, imports are expected to remain flat year on year at 3.5 million tons. Tighter exportable supplies in Argentina and Uruguay will thwart China import growth in 2023. Brazil is expected to increase shipments to China amidst the pullback by other Mercosur suppliers despite losing market access for about 4 weeks after an atypical case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Reduced competition and a weaker real will support a 4 percent increase in Brazil exports to all markets. Australia exports are forecast 13 percent higher as higher supplies and lower carcass prices propel shipments to East Asia and North America. Australia is expected to take market share away from the United States in East Asia. Meanwhile, rising U.S. import demand will support increases to Australia exports. India exports are forecast 2 percent higher on strong price competitiveness in key Southeast Asia and Middle East markets, especially Vietnam, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia. U.S. production and exports are forecast at 12.2 million tons and 1.4 million tons – down 5 percent and 11 percent, respectively. Entering 2023, the U.S. cattle herd contracted by roughly 3 percent compared to 2022. As 2023 progresses, smaller feeder cattle supplies relative to last year will reduce feedlot placements and, assuming favorable forage conditions, producers are expected to retain more heifers for breeding given strengthening calf prices. Thus, cattle slaughter and beef production are expected to be lower in 2023. Lower production is expected to result in tight exportable supplies. Concurrently, increased Australia production further dampens the outlook for U.S. exports as lower Australia prices reduce demand for U.S. beef, particularly in East Asia.
Pork Meat
Global production in 2023 is forecast virtually unchanged year over year at 114.3 million tons as lower production in the European Union (EU), United Kingdom, and Canada is mostly offset by larger production in the United States, Vietnam, Brazil, and China. EU pork production is forecast 3 percent lower year over year to 21.8 million tons. EU hog inventories continued to decline in 2022 and are forecast at 131.8 million head in 2023, down 2 percent year-over-year. Increasing environmental regulations and weaker producer margins from increased input costs will likely continue to stifle EU pork production. Vietnam production is forecast to increase 6 percent to 3.3 million tons on industry investments and continuing recovery from the impacts of African swine fever. Brazil production is forecast 2 percent higher year over year as domestic demand and export opportunities remain strong due to competitive prices. China’s production is expected to marginally increase as consumer demand remains robust. Global exports are expected at 10.6 million tons in 2023, 3 percent lower year over year as declines from the EU, Canada, and Mexico offset increased exports from Brazil and China. EU exports are forecast to decline 10 percent on lower exports to China, Japan, and South Korea as EU pork loses price competitiveness due to increasing input costs. Canada shipments in 2023 are forecast 4 percent lower year over year. The closure of slaughter facilities and relatively high feed prices are expected to weigh on Canada’s pork production in 2023, lowering available supplies for export. Brazil exports are forecast up 5 percent, largely on higher shipments to Chile and China. China exports are forecast higher as the easing of border controls in Japan and Hong Kong is anticipated to stimulate demand from the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector for processed pork products from China. U.S. production and exports: U.S. pork production is forecast 1 percent higher year over year to 12.4 million tons as the relatively strong growth in slaughter during the first quarter moderates during the year. U.S. exports are forecast slightly higher in 2023 with small increases to China, Japan, and South Korea, due to increasing U.S. competitiveness and declining exports from the European Union.
Chiken Meat
Global production is forecast 1 percent higher in 2023 to 103.4 million tons, mostly on gains by Brazil and the United States but also Thailand, Mexico, and Turkey. Although feed prices remain elevated, lower expected corn and soybean prices in 2023 will buoy production in most countries. Brazil production is forecast 3 percent higher to a record of 14.9 million tons on firm foreign demand partnered with lower costs of production. Production gains in Thailand and Mexico are buoyed by strong domestic demand while Turkey continues to benefit from robust regional demand. China production is forecast unchanged at 14.3 million tons as gains in white feather broiler offsets a comparable decline in yellow feather broiler production. Global exports are forecast 1 percent higher in 2023 to 13.7 million tons as gains by several suppliers offset declines by others. The world’s largest exporter, Brazil, is forecast to have the greatest increase (7 percent) to a record of 4.8 million tons as it remains free of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and services a wide range of products to an array of markets. Minor gains are forecast for Ukraine, Turkey, and Thailand. Ukraine is expected to continue to increase shipments to the EU, benefitting from temporary EU free-trade measures. Turkey shipments continue regional expansion, particularly to Iraq. EU exports are forecast to decline on HPAI restrictions and lower price competitiveness relative to other world suppliers. Argentina and Chile exports are forecast to decline due to HPAI-related restrictions by key trading partners. U.S. production and exports: U.S. production is forecast 1 percent higher in 2023 to 21.3 million tons. Exports are forecast slightly higher (1 percent) at 3.3 million tons. As U.S. shipments are largely destined for price-sensitive middle- and low-income markets, relatively higher U.S. prices reduce competitiveness lending way to Brazil and other suppliers to increase shipments. The impact of HPAI related restrictions imposed on the United States by trading partners has generally been abated as they are usually limited in geographic scope at a zone, county, or state-level rather than national. However, HPAI-related restrictions remain a constraint to significant expansion.
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