USDA projects a 6.1 percent drop in US beef imports in 2026
This was stated in its August supply and demand report.
For 2026, a 6.1% drop in imports is expected compared to the previous year. The July report had predicted a drop of just 0.5%.
The report also lowered its forecast for this year's imports. Growth is now forecast at 13.8%, compared to the 16% increase expected in July.
The agency's technicians reduced their forecast for per capita consumption for 2026, which is expected to fall 2.5% compared to this year.
Executives at the major meatpacking groups in the United States believe that a recovery in cattle herds and beef supply will not be seen until late 2027 or the first half of 2028.
In its earnings presentation last week, JBS executives anticipated a gradual improvement in cattle stocks starting in late 2027.
Two weeks ago, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King said that producers would begin rebuilding cattle stocks in early 2026 and that the benefit of female retention would be seen in 2028.
In Marfrig's earnings presentation, Tim Klein, CEO of its North American operations, indicated that "margin improvements are expected starting in 2027 based on cattle retention data and reduced cow slaughter".
New highs for consumer beef prices in the US.
Over the past 12 months, the price has risen 11.3% compared to a 2.7% increase in inflation.
In July, the consumer price of beef rose 1.5% compared to June, reaching a value 11.3% higher than the same month in 2024, reaching new all-time highs.
Meanwhile, the price of ground beef increased 2.4% monthly, reaching a value 11.5% higher than July of last year.
According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture, beef production in 2025 is expected to fall 3.9% compared to the previous year. By 2026, production is expected to fall 1.8%, to its lowest level since 2016.
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