USDA: Lower EU pig production and exports in 2026
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects a decline in pork production and exports to the European Union in 2026. This is due to a persistently tight market situation, which necessitates adjustments in production, according to US experts. After a temporary increase in slaughtering in 2025 as a result of good pork prices and low feed costs, the market environment deteriorated significantly by the end of the year. A large supply on the EU single market, partly due to trade barriers, put downward pressure on prices. The USDA expects this trend to continue into 2026.
Against this backdrop, the US authorities anticipate a noticeable structural adjustment in pig farming within the EU. Production is expected to decline by approximately 1.6% in 2026. Particularly in Western Europe, lower slaughter numbers are anticipated. Key factors include low prices, increasing environmental and animal welfare regulations, and economic uncertainties, which could lead to further farm closures.
In the Netherlands, the situation is particularly affected by declining piglet exports, rising environmental costs, and government purchase programs. The USDA also expects structural change to continue in Germany. In contrast, the situation appears more stable in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, where comparatively low production costs, favorable piglet prices, and subsidy programs support production.
The USDA also expects a decline in EU foreign trade. For 2026, the US agency estimates EU exports will be 9.2% lower than in 2025. Trade restrictions—such as Chinese tariffs and ASF-related supply bans for parts of Spain—are likely to limit exports, even though lower prices generally improve competitiveness. Other EU suppliers are not expected to be able to fully compensate for the lost sales opportunities.
Overall, pork consumption in the EU is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026. Increasing demand in parts of Central and Southeastern Europe may partially offset weaker developments in other regions. According to the USDA's assessment, 2026 will see a market with declining production, falling exports, and continued pressure to adapt in European pig farming.
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