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USMEF: Difficult month for US beef exports in September

Beef

USDA has released red meat export data for September, which was delayed due to the recent government shutdown. September beef exports were the lowest in more than five years, with shipments to China effectively halted and exports to other Asian markets also trending lower year-over-year.

Posted on Dec 17 ,00:25

“The situation is obviously much more challenging for the beef industry, primarily due to the ongoing impasse with the Chinese government, which continues to ignore its commitments under the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement. U.S. industry losses continue to mount as a result of this lockout, and relief simply cannot come soon enough”, said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom.

September beef exports were just 80,835 mt, down 22% from a year ago and the lowest since June 2020. Export value was $660.9 million, also down 22% and the lowest since February 2021. Even when excluding China, beef export volume fell 11% year-over-year, due in part to lower production.

January-September beef exports totaled 856,023 mt, down 11% from a year ago (and down 4% when excluding China). Export value was down 10% to $7.03 billion. Exports trended higher to leading value market Korea and to Central and South America, Hong Kong, the Philippines, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas and Africa. But these gains were more than offset by the steep decline to China and lower shipments to Japan, Mexico, Canada and Taiwan.

Although beef exports to South Korea took a step back in September, shipments to the U.S. industry’s leading value market remained above last year’s pace through the first three quarters of the year. September exports totaled 14,810 mt, down 18% from a year ago, while value fell 20% to $139.3 million. January-September exports were 5% higher in both volume (177,717 mt) and value ($1.69 billion).

Beef export volume to Central America also trended lower in September (1,482 mt, down 27%) but value still increased nearly 10% to $16.4 million. Led by growth in Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras and Belize, January-September exports to the region increased 2% year-over-year to 16,002 mt, while export value soared 31% to $150.6 million. With an entire quarter remaining, export value to Central America is already approaching 2024’s full-year record of $160.2 million.

September beef exports to Mexico increased 5% from a year ago in value ($117.3 million) despite a 14% decline in volume (16,862 mt). Through the first three quarters of the year, exports to Mexico were down 11% to 154,694 mt, while value fell just 4% to $974 million. Although Brazil’s beef exports to Mexico peaked in June at about 16,000 mt, the presence of Brazilian beef remains substantial. The most recent data available is from November, with Brazil’s shipments to Mexico still approaching 9,000 mt. Brazil is now the largest supplier of beef muscle cuts to Mexico.    

Other January-September results from U.S. beef exports include:

• September beef exports to Canada increased 2% from a year ago to 7,661 mt, while value climbed 13% to $73.7 million. January-September exports to Canada were 7% below last year in volume (71,858 mt) and 6% lower in value ($659.8 million).
• Beef exports to the Philippines trended higher in September, increasing 76% from a year ago to 1,815 mt, while value jumped 60% to $15.2 million. January-September exports increased 20% in volume (13,565 mt) and 10% in value ($106 million). Exports to the ASEAN were substantially lower in both volume (22,513 mt, down 27%) and value ($177 million, down 31%), but this was due in large part to lack of access to Indonesia. With shipments to Indonesia recently resuming, exports to the region could perform better moving forward. However, import licenses for 2026 have not been allocated and the additional U.S. beef plants have not yet been added to Indonesia’s eligible facility list, so uncertainty continues for next year.
• September beef exports to the Caribbean achieved a 7% increase in value ($20.5 million) despite a 10% decline in volume (2,220 mt). January-September results followed a similar trend, falling 5% to 23,151 mt but still climbing 12% in value to $231.3 million, with value growth led by the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica.
• Beef exports to Africa were also lower in September (870 mt, down 10%) but still increased 7% in value to $1.6 million. Led by growth in Cote D’Ivoire, Morocco and Gabon, January-September exports to Africa increased 11% to 9,637 mt, while value climbed 30% to $16 million. Beef variety meats account for 94% of total export volume to Africa and about 80% of export value.
• Although Japan remains the leading volume market for U.S. beef exports, September shipments declined 12% from a year ago to 17,018 mt, while value fell 16% to $121.8 million. Through September, exports to Japan were down 4% from a year ago at 181,487 mt, valued at $1.34 billion (down 8%).
• September beef exports to China sank to just 556 mt, down 96% from a year ago, valued at $2.5 million (down 98%). Through September, exports to China fell 57% to 57,050 mt, valued at $486.7 million (down 58%). China is now Australia’s largest destination for grain-fed beef exports, with shipments to China up 55% to 132,000 mt from January through November.
• September beef export value equated to $337.21 per head of fed slaughter, down 18% from a year ago, while the January-September average was down 5% to $393.25. Exports accounted for 10.9% of total September beef production and 8.8% of muscle cuts, down significantly from the respective September 2024 ratios of 13.8% and 11.3%. For January through September, exports accounted for 12.9% of total beef production and 10.7% for muscle cuts, each down about one percentage point from a year ago.

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