Uncertainty looms over the global poultry market
The global outlook for Q4 2021 is relatively positive, with ongoing strong demand and restricted supply, relatively flat (but high) feed prices, and further increases in trade volumes driven by recovering food service. However, in some countries, this has created food inflation concerns. The wild card for the outlook remains Covid-19. Depending on how it develops, Covid-19 could shake up markets and supply discipline in some more fragile places, like Europe and Southeast Asia, according to the latest Rabobank quarterly report.
Stronger local market conditions exist in all key regions, except Southeast Asia, due to reopening economies and relatively restrictive local supply. The US, Mexico, Russia, and Japan face particularly strong markets with good profitability for local producers, analysts believe.
Supply growth in 2H 2021 will be restricted in many regions by labor availability issues, which are especially affecting production in the US, the UK, and Thailand. Furthermore, ongoing avian influenza risks and high feed prices are impacting supply worldwide. Feed prices are expected to stay relatively flat, with some increase in wheat prices due to weaker availability from the EU and Russia. Soymeal prices have been dropping due to rationalizing demand and a more oil-focused approach among crushers.
Global trade saw a strong recovery in Q2 2021, with trade volumes at historical highs. Brazil and the US have benefited the most from strong trade, while exports from Europe, Russia, and Ukraine have dropped due to avian influenza and a slowdown in Chinese imports, adds the report.
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