Weak June resulted in a decline in seafood exports in the first half of the year
"Although there was no growth in value, the first half of the year was the second best ever in terms of value. Only last year was better. A weak Norwegian krone and high prices for cod and salmon boosted value in the first five months of the year. However, the growth stopped in June, which is largely driven by falling salmon prices", says Christian Chramer, CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
"Despite the downturn, the seafood industry is delivering strong figures with the second-best half-year figures ever. Nevertheless, weakened purchasing power in key markets, lower export volumes and increased competition from other seafood nations is something we must take very seriously, including through our work on market access", says Marianne Sivertsen Næss (Ap), Minister of Fisheries and Ocean Policy.
Historical decline in value
In June, seafood exports fell by 18 per cent, or NOK 2.7 billion, compared with the same month last year. This is a historic change. Never has the value of exports fallen by more than NOK 2 billion in a single month.
"Salmon still accounts for 70 per cent of the total value of Norwegian seafood exports, so when the price of fresh whole salmon fell by as much as NOK 31 in June compared with the previous month, it had a major impact on the total value", explains Chramer.
More demanding situation
Salmon grew in value for 36 consecutive months before stalling in March this year. In the first half of the year, the value fell by NOK 1.8 billion, or 3 per cent, compared with the same period last year.
"The situation was demanding in the first half of the year. Biological challenges resulted in lower harvesting volumes and a change in product composition towards more fillets. In June, global competition from other producer countries also increased, which had a negative impact on prices. The battle for salmon customers has now really intensified", says Christian Chramer.
Continued weakening of purchasing power
Demand in the major consumer markets is still characterised by weakened purchasing power.
"Even with lower inflation and the prospect of real wage growth in our key EU market, prices for both food and other goods have risen more than incomes in recent years. Real wages in the EU are not expected to return to 2021 levels until 2025", explains Chramer.
In addition to lower salmon prices, the first half of the year saw a quota cut for several of Norway's wild-caught species. This has affected the value of cod, king crab, herring and mackerel.
Facts about seafood exports in the first half of the year
These are the 10 largest species in the first half of the year in terms of value
These are the top 10 destination countries in the first half of the year in terms of value
Seafood exports in June
Decline in volume and value for salmon
Poland had the highest value growth in the first half of the year, with an increase in export value of NOK 267 million, or 4 per cent, compared with the first half of last year.
The export volume to Poland ended at 62,916 tonnes, which is the same as in the first half of last year.
The price of fresh whole salmon is at a record high of NOK 107 per kg, which is NOK 1 per kg higher than the previous record, which was in the first half of 2023.
The second largest fall in value of all time
"The fall in value in June was the second largest ever, measured against the same month the previous year. It was only beaten by March this year, but that change must be seen in the context of Easter. This time, falling salmon prices in June are the main reason for the decline", says Seafood Analyst Paul T. Aandahl of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
In May, the export price for fresh salmon was NOK 116.66 per kg. This fell to NOK 85.85 per kg in June, a record fall of NOK 30.81 per kg.
Increased competition
"This is the biggest drop in prices measured from one month to the next. The previous record fall between two months was in August 2022 at NOK 14.42 per kg. If we compare this to the price in June last year, the difference is NOK 14.60 per kg. This is not a record between two equal months. It was set in January 2021 at NOK 26.80 per kg" explains Aandahl.
The fall in prices this year is primarily due to a 27 per cent increase in the volume of fresh whole salmon compared with May.
“In addition, global competition is increasing. This has particularly affected prices to markets that have traditionally paid the most for salmon. In June, there was a big drop in prices to markets such as Italy, South Korea, China and the USA", says Paul T. Aandahl.
Exports of salmon in June
Growth in volume and value for trout
Ukraine had the highest value growth in the first half of the year, with an increase in export value of NOK 423 million, or 282 per cent, compared with the first half of last year.
Exports to Ukraine totalled 6,586 tonnes, which is 272 per cent higher than in the first half of last year.
Replacing salmon with trout
"Ukraine is a market for both salmon and trout. Despite a 30 per cent decline in the export volume of salmon, the export volume of salmonids increased by 11 per cent. The shift towards trout to Ukraine must be seen in the context of lower prices for trout compared with salmon", says Seafood Analyst Paul T. Aandahl of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
So far this year, the average price of salmon to Ukraine is NOK 111.29 per kg, while the average price of fresh trout is NOK 88.69 per kg.
The price of fresh trout fillets is at a record high of NOK 154 per kg. This is NOK 7 per kg higher than the previous record, which was in the first half of 2023.
Trout exports in June were as follows
Decline for fresh cod
With lower quotas, landings of fresh cod also fell sharply in the first half of the year. This has led to a major decline in export volumes.
For fresh wild cod, the export volume fell by 29 per cent to 22,014 tonnes, while the export value fell by 24 per cent to NOK 1.4 billion.
Lowest export value since 2015
"This is the lowest export value for fresh wild cod in the first half of the year since 2015, while we have to go all the way back to 2011 to find a lower export volume," says Seafood Analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
The export volume of fresh farmed cod increased by 28 per cent to 6,436 tonnes, while the export value increased by 51 per cent to NOK 372 million.
Historically high share of farmed cod
Farmed cod accounted for 21 per cent of the export value of fresh cod in the first half of the year.
"The proportion of farmed cod has never been so high in the first half of the year. It is also both the highest export value and the highest export volume we have had for fresh farmed cod in a six-month period. With the prospect of a further decline in cod quotas in 2025, as well as continued growth in the production of farmed cod, farmed cod will account for an increasing share of cod exports from Norway", says Brækkan.
Exports of fresh cod in June
Frozen cod affected by the quota cut
Lower quotas also have an impact on export volumes for frozen cod. Norway has not exported such low volumes of frozen cod in the first half of the year since 2015.
Although export volumes to the UK fell 4 per cent to 8,300 tonnes in the first half of the year, they retain their position as our largest market for frozen cod, having overtaken China last year.
Expected increase in UK trade in goods
Warmer temperatures and a football atmosphere are cited when growth in British retail is expected throughout the summer. In a few days' time, the British will also elect their next government.
"Despite lower cod quotas, it is positive to see the strength of the Norwegian-British seafood co-operation, with a maintained market position and growth in Norwegian exports of frozen whole cod to the UK", says Victoria Braathen, the Norwegian Seafood Council's envoy to the UK.
The volume of exports to China increased by 12 per cent to a total of 9,300 tonnes in the first half of the year. However, this is still significantly lower than in previous years. In the first half of 2022, Norway exported a total of 18,100 tonnes to China.
Continued growth to Vietnam
Vietnam's growth continued in the first half of the year. From being the 14th largest market for frozen cod in 2022, Vietnam has now become the third largest market for frozen cod.
"Like China, Vietnam is primarily a processing market for frozen cod and other whitefish. Vietnam is also the market with the highest value growth in the first half of the year, with an increase in export value of NOK 199 million, or 186 per cent, compared with the same period last year", says Brækkan.
Exports to Vietnam totalled 5,961 tonnes, which is 172 per cent higher than in the first half of last year.
Exports of frozen cod in June
Volume growth for clipfish
For saithe clipfish, the export volume increased by 8 per cent to 24,002 tonnes, while the export value fell by 7 per cent to NOK 987 million.
“With major changes in quotas and landings, it is fresh and frozen cod that varies most in volume, while conventional products are more stable. We are seeing the same trend again this year. The reduction in cod quotas has not had the same impact on the export volume of cod clipfish", says Seafood Analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
For cod clipfish, the export volume fell by 2 per cent to 10,158 tonnes, while the export value increased by 6 per cent to NOK 1.3 billion.
Largest value growth to Portugal
Portugal had the highest value growth in the first half of the year, with an increase in export value of NOK 127 million, or 15 per cent, compared with the first half of last year.
The export volume to Portugal ended at 7,952 tonnes, which is 8 per cent higher than in the first half of last year. This means that the export price has increased by around 7 per cent from the first half of last year.
"In Portugal, we are now seeing consumers having to cope with higher prices in the shops, which is creating uncertainty about future consumption trends. At the same time, it's set to be another record year for tourism. This will contribute to good demand in the restaurant market", says Trond Rismo, the Norwegian Seafood Council's envoy to Portugal.
Exports of clipfish in June
Decline for salted fish
Even with a significant drop in export volumes, increased prices have helped to mitigate the decline in the export value of salted cod, which accounts for 91 per cent of the export value of salted fish.
Largest share of salted fish since 2011
In terms of total cod exports, salted whole cod accounted for as much as 20 per cent of the export value of cod in the first half of the year.
"We have to go all the way back to 2011 to find a higher share in the first half of the year. This indicates that demand for salted cod has been stronger than for other cod products this year", says Seafood Analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Greece had the highest value growth in the first half of the year, with an increase in export value of NOK 12 million, or 14 per cent, compared with the first half of last year.
Exports to Greece totalled 1,694 tonnes, which is 32 per cent higher than in the first half of last year.
Fall to Portugal
Exports to our largest salted fish market, Portugal, fell by 16 per cent in the first half of the year to 12,000 tonnes, while export value fell by 2 per cent to NOK 1.23 billion.
"The decline in volume has contributed to an increase in prices for salted fish, which measured in euros are 16 per cent higher in the first half of this year compared with last year", explains Brækkan.
"As with clipfish, the Portuguese are now also experiencing this price increase in the shops, which creates uncertainty about future consumption trends. At the same time, the increase in tourism is helping to boost demand in the restaurant market", says Trond Rismo, the Norwegian Seafood Council's envoy to Portugal.
Exports of salted fish in June
Stockfish decline in the first half of the year
Our largest stockfish market, Italy, saw a 7 per cent decline in export volumes in the first half of the year, to a total of 1,019 tonnes. Export value fell 5 per cent to NOK 315 million.
"Since this year's stockfish production does not reach the markets until the second half of the year, last year's quota cuts have probably contributed to the decline in export volumes of stockfish in the first half of the year", says Seafood Analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Lowest export volume for cod stockfish
For cod stockfish, which accounts for 94 per cent of the export value of all stockfish, only 2,552 tonnes have been exported in the past 12 months.
"This is a decline of 17 per cent compared with the previous 12 months and is the lowest export volume for cod stockfish ever recorded in a 12-month period. With cod quotas continuing to fall, there is a risk that the negative volume trend will continue in the future", explains Brækkan.
Largest value growth to Croatia
Croatia had the highest value growth in the first half of the year, with an increase in export value of NOK 13 million, or 65 per cent, compared with the first half of last year.
The export volume to Croatia ended at 107 tonnes, which is 57 per cent higher than in the first half of last year.
"With just under 4 million inhabitants, this makes Croatia the country with the highest per capita consumption of stockfish in the world. Last year, each Croatian ate an average of 60 grams of stockfish", explains Eivind Hestvik Brækkan.
In our largest stockfish market, Italy, per capita consumption is just over 30 grams per person. However, consumption in Italy is far higher in the largest stockfish regions.
Exports of stockfish in June
Decline for herring
The explanation for the reduction in exports lies in the reduced landings of herring in the first half of the year.
"Landings of Norwegian spring-spawning herring (NVG) fell by as much as 75,000 tonnes, a decline of 43 per cent compared with the first half of last year. This is linked to a sharp reduction in quotas", says Jan Eirik Johnsen, Head of Pelagic Species at the Norwegian Seafood Council.
In 2023, the quota was 388,000 tonnes, while in 2024 it will be 256,000 tonnes, a reduction of 34 per cent.
Demanding fishery
"Although significantly smaller quantities of herring have been landed so far this year, the remaining quota for the autumn is lower than last year. "Last year, 213,000 tonnes remained for the autumn, while this year 155,000 tonnes remain, i.e. 27 per cent less", says Johnsen.
For North Sea herring, the quota has been increased by 29 per cent, from 117,000 tonnes to 151,000 tonnes.
"However, this has been a demanding fishery. 3,500 tonnes less were landed in the first six months of this year compared with the same period last year.
Lower raw material supply and good prices for residual raw materials
"Lower raw material availability and favourable prices for residual raw materials have meant that the shift away from exports of whole frozen herring to fillets has continued in the first half of the year", Johnsen explains.
48,000 tonnes of fillet were exported, compared with 55,000 in the same period last year, a decrease of 13 per cent. However, the value has increased from NOK 935 million to NOK 979 million, as the average price has increased from NOK 16.91 per kg to NOK 20.20 per kg.
For frozen whole herring, the volume in the first half of the year was 24,000 tonnes, down from 47,000 tonnes in the same period last year, or 49 per cent. Here too, prices are up to NOK 14.64 per kg, compared with NOK 12.56 per kg last year.
Price record for frozen fillets of skinless NVG herring
“This is a price record in euros for the largest export product, which is frozen fillets of skinless NVG herring. Here, the price reached 1.79 euros in June. In comparison, the price in June 2023 was €1.52, which means a price increase of 18 per cent", says Jan Eirik Johnsen.
A new record was set for whole frozen herring in both NOK and EUR in June this year. A price of NOK 13.96 per kg and EUR 1.22 per kg was achieved. This is 7 per cent and 10 per cent respectively above the prices in June 2023.
For processed herring, there was a decline in volume in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. 3,400 tonnes were exported, compared with 8,000 tonnes last year, a decrease of 58 per cent. The average price is up from NOK 22.97 per kg to NOK 24.87 per kg.
Positive development in Lithuania, France and Latvia
Of the major fillet markets, exports to both Poland and Germany are falling. In the first half of the year, 20,000 tonnes were exported to these countries, with a value of NOK 382 million.
In comparison, exports in 2023 totalled 27,000 tonnes, with a value of NOK 455 million.
- For Lithuania, France and Latvia, however, there was a positive development. A total of 15,000 tonnes were exported to these countries, with a value of NOK 312 million. In the same period last year, exports totalled 13,000 tonnes, with a value of NOK 222 million, an increase of 15 per cent in volume and 41 per cent in value," says Jan Eirik Johnsen.
For whole frozen herring, Egypt dominates with 41 per cent of all exports in the first half of the year. However, the volume has fallen from 29,000 tonnes in the first half of last year to 10,000 tonnes this year. The value fell from NOK 340 million to NOK 124 million.
Exports of herring in June
Fall in volume and value for mackerel
Mackerel exports are characterised by the fact that significantly smaller quantities were landed in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year. This year, 40,000 tonnes were landed in the first half of the year, compared with 55,000 tonnes last year, a decrease of 27 per cent.
3-year agreement ensures predictability
“The most significant development for mackerel in the first half of the year is that Norway, the UK and the Faroe Islands have agreed on a three-year agreement that establishes shares between the countries. Among other things, this gives Norwegian fishermen the opportunity to fish 60 per cent of the mackerel quota in British waters. The agreement provides important predictability, reduces fishing pressure on mackerel and allows Norwegian fishermen to fish efficiently for mackerel when the quality is at its best", says Jan Eirik Johnsen, Head of Pelagic Species at the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Vietnam has become an important processing market
Good demand in the markets and declining supply due to quota reductions in recent years mean that a price record has been set for mackerel under 600 grams. For this dominant product, the average price was 22.65 per kg in the first half of the year. The previous record was set in 2023 (NOK 19.68 per kg).
"In Asia, we see that Vietnam is increasing in importance as a processing market, while it is falling correspondingly for China. Mackerel processed in China is subject to a 10 per cent tariff in the largest mackerel market, Japan, while fillets from Vietnam have zero tariffs", says Johnsen.
Exports of mackerel in June
Weak half-year for king crab
"The first half of the year has been characterized by a lower supply of king crab, which is a result of reduced quotas, bad weather at the start of the year and the extension of the closed season to both March and April", says Seafood Analyst Marte Sofie Danielsen of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
The US was the largest market in the first half of the year in terms of value and volume. Despite a decline in volume, the US share increased by 11 percentage points to 44 per cent this year. In addition, the value to the US has increased by 2 per cent, to NOK 176 million.
Record high price for live king crab
"Due to lower global supply of red king crab in the first half of the year, demand for Norwegian king crab has been strong. This led to a record high price for live king crab of NOK 596 per kg, which is NOK 39 higher than the previous record half-year, which was in the first half of 2022", explains Danielsen.
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