The global poultry sector confirms its extraordinary resilience and remains, even in the second half of the year, one of the most dynamic and responsive sectors within the global animal protein landscape. According to the latest Global Poultry Quarterly Q3 2026 report published by Rabobank, the international poultry supply chain continues to show solid growth, supported by robust structural demand and a progressive strengthening of growth estimates for the current year.
In light of the excellent performance recorded in the first months of the year, RaboResearch has raised its growth forecast for the global poultry market for 2026. The initial estimate, which predicted an increase of between 2.5% and 3%, has been officially updated to a more optimistic range of between 3% and 3.5% . This acceleration is mainly driven by the results achieved in some key global markets, notably the European Union, China, Brazil, South Africa, and the Philippines, regions which saw production increases exceeding 5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026.
The main driver behind this expansion lies in the highly competitive price positioning of poultry meat compared to other competing protein sources, primarily beef. The marked price differential is driving a widespread and progressive shift among consumers towards chicken, consolidating its status as an accessible, versatile, and essential protein in global diets, even in complex macroeconomic environments.
Despite the overall favorable trend, Rabobank’s analysis urges caution regarding the resilience of consumer spending power. A possible worsening of global macroeconomic conditions and increased price sensitivity could, in fact, exert adverse pressure on demand for poultry, especially in contexts characterized by lower disposable income, such as some South Asian economies and several regions of Africa, where pressure on disposable incomes directly exposes households to volatility and rising retail food prices.
The strategic emphasis placed by national governments on food security is progressively reshaping global supply chains. We are witnessing a proliferation of public policies aimed at incentivizing and protecting domestic production, accelerating the transition from traditional global trade to a local -to-local approach, aimed at aligning production and consumption areas geographically.
This regionalization of supply chains is clearly evident in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia. The most emblematic example is China, which has completed a historic structural transformation, evolving from the world’s leading poultry importer to a major exporter, disrupting the established balance of international trade.
Nonetheless, world trade is holding its own and showing signs of strong resilience. In the first quarter of 2026, international trade in poultry products increased by 3.5% compared to the same period in 2025. This is a significant result, especially given the context of an international environment plagued by geopolitical tensions and marked instability.
In particular, supply flows to the Gulf countries have demonstrated excellent resilience, supported by the activity of exporters and strategic logistics hubs such as Brazil, Ukraine, Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. The reduction in trade tensions in the Strait of Hormuz has also contributed to this resilience. The reopening of maritime trade has mitigated short-term risks to energy and transportation costs, facilitating the transit of both poultry meat and essential raw materials intended for animal feed production.
The report identifies potential regulatory or tariff adjustments related to the access of Brazilian poultry products to the European Union market as one of the main areas of uncertainty and monitoring for the coming months.
A possible reduction or exclusion of imports from Brazil would lead to a profound reorganization of global trade, with three direct consequences:
- there would be upward pressure on Community prices due to the reduced availability of imported products;
- an opposite effect would occur on the Brazilian domestic market, with downward pressure on prices due to excess domestic supply;
- The European Union would be forced to redefine its supply channels, orienting itself towards third countries such as Thailand and China.
To safeguard profitability and market stability in a phase of sustained but complex growth, Rabobank emphasizes the pressing need for companies to invest in operational efficiency and strategic flexibility. The main global risk factors for the coming months of 2026 include:
- international geopolitical instability: persistence of conflicts and tariff barriers;
- climate variables: potential impacts on livestock crops resulting from the El Niño meteorological phenomenon;
- Breeding stock supply chains: limited global availability of breeders and consequent tensions on the genetic material market.
