EU: Decline in pork production and consumption by 2035

According to the latest market outlook from the European Commission for the next ten years, both pork consumption and pork production in the EU are expected to continue to decline slightly but steadily until 2035. At the same time, competition in international markets is increasing and global trade flows are shifting.

Posted on Jan 07 ,00:20

EU production will decline continuously until 2035

According to EU experts, per capita pork consumption could decline from 23.8 kg to 21.8 kg. This would correspond to an average decrease of approximately 0.9% per year. At the same time, Brussels experts anticipate a similar average annual decline in production of 0.9%, resulting in approximately 1.8 million tons less pork being produced in 2035, at 19.7 million tons.
EU Commission experts project that annual global pork imports will remain stable at around 10.5 million tons until 2035. Production capacities in China and Vietnam could recover, leading to lower import demand, while some regions in Africa and Asia could experience increased import demand.

Lower Chinese demand for pork in the coming decade is expected to intensify competition from the US, Canada, and Brazil in other Asian markets. As a result, EU pork exports could decline by an average of approximately 1.0% per year until 2035. This would reduce the EU's share of global pork exports from 28.5% to 26%.
The European Commission forecasts that EU pork prices will average around €2.00/kg by 2035, remaining at the same level as in previous years, but still above producer prices in Brazil and Canada.