EU Outlook: Beef production and consumption continue to fall
The dairy herd should decline progressively, while the suckler cow herd is set to decrease to 9.9 million head by 2032 (-636 000 head or -6 %), due to low profitability and increasing environmental concerns. The overall decline hides opposing developments in different EU countries. Coupled income support and certain eco-schemes under the new CAP, together with a relatively good price outlook will only dampen this trend, not reverse it. The average slaughter weight will continue its slightly upward trend thanks to advanced technologies (e.g. management of germinal products) and a larger share of beef-type animals in the productive herd, while a shift to organic and more extensive production systems may partially counteract this trend. After COVID-19, EU beef consumption continued decreasing in 2022 because of low availability and high prices. It should follow this downward trend during the next ten years. By 2032, per capita beef consumption may drop from 10.3 to 9.5 kg (-7.8 %).
Meat export gains offsetting the decline in exports of live animals
Global import demand for beef will increase by 1.3 million t between 2020-2022 and 2032. EU exports of live animals are expected to decline gradually (-2.8 % per year) due to increased competition and concerns about animal welfare in long-distance transport. EU meat exports are due to grow by 2032 (+1.1 % per year), mainly thanks to continuing or rising demand from existing trade partners. Future trade agreements between the UK and Australia/US (not accounted in this baseline) might change this picture drastically. However, the EU will keep exporting to high-value markets in neighbouring countries (UK, Switzerland, Norway) and in countries with whom the EU concluded FTAs recently (Japan, Canada). EU beef imports rebounded in 2022 after Brexit, the relaxation of the COVID-19 lockdown measures, the limited supply and the highly attractive EU price. In the coming years, imports will slowly increase and reach close to pre-COVID level by 2032.
Beef prices to stabilise around EUR 4 000/t
After the high beef prices in 2022, prices are expected to come down again due to more balanced supply and demand, and an expected cost reduction at EU and world level. So, it could stabilise at slightly above EUR 4 000/t, supported by high international demand.
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