Inflation and cost of living put long-term resilience of farming under pressure in 2024
The latest agri-market outlook has highlighted cumulative inflation of more than 30% in agricultural inputs since 2019, coupled with market stresses and policy uncertainty, as the key drivers behind the threat to long-term resilience in the industry.
It also revealed markets, food businesses and consumers are still battling with the ongoing challenges of inflation, fuelled by the energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and shortage of labour. Recent developments in the Middle East represent additional risk to the global economy and UK inflation.
Farmers are likely to feel the effects of cumulative inflation in inputs. Combined with energy and interest rates, this is continuing to pressure businesses and consumers, fuelling an ongoing price-sensitive consumer market for their produce. This has the potential to significantly impact trends in food consumption in 2024 and beyond.
Sarah Baker, AHDB Head of Economics and Analysis, said:
"Farmers saw input costs rise significantly during 2023, putting pressure on farm business margins with the cost of fertiliser being a prime example. While some input costs are falling, they remain above pre-inflation levels and are likely to remain risky due to linkage to energy markets and instability around the world. Coupled with market stresses and policy uncertainty around burgeoning environment schemes and the budgets that underpin them, long term resilience will be put under pressure.
"With the current level of uncertainty on multiple fronts, markets, businesses, and consumers are now operating in a short-term bubble which poses a risk to long-term resilience and inward investment. Without long-term certainty and the recovery of consumer confidence, challenges are likely to persist for the industry in 2024".
AHDB agri-market outlook examines the factors likely to affect farm businesses, helping levy payers plan and budget for what may lie ahead. The analysis features detailed market outlooks for each levy-paying sector it covers: beef, lamb, dairy, pork, cereals and oilseeds. It examines trends in farm business inputs and consumer demand.
Beef
Lamb
Pork
Dairy
Cereals and oilseeds
Central to the Aussie Meat Academy are influential food industry professionals who are passionate...
“Looking at the United Kingdom alone, there are 3.9m Muslims and our research suggests that...
A record-breaking Gulfood attendance set the tone for the year, with tradeshows and exhibitions b...