Scottish prime cattle prices are 4% lower than a year ago
Scottish prime cattle prices have started the year 4% lower than at the start of 2018, with the wider European beef market also down around 3% in Euro terms, according to the latest market commentary from Quality Meat Scotland (QMS).
“Within this average, Irish prices are 6% lower than last year and bigger falls are reported for Spain and France - the countries with the two largest cattle herds in Europe,” said Stuart Ashworth, QMS Director of Economics Services.
US prime cattle price are unchanged but on lower throughputs while Australian producers are enjoying a 10% increase compared to the same period of 2018. Due to severe drought slaughterings over the first ten months of 2018 were around 10% higher than in 2017 and prices reached a low point during August - 20% lower than they currently are. "As 2018 drew to a close, volumes fell back towards more typical levels and going into 2019 are expected to fall below the long-run average", declared Mr Ashworth.
High numbers of cow slaughtering in 2018 lead to a decline in the breeding cow herd with dairy cow numbers down 0.5% and beef cow numbers down 1.4%. Scottish calf registrations dipped by 0.25% in 2017 and in the 11 months to the end of November 2018 had fallen a further 2.5%. Cow slaughterings across the UK ran ahead of last year’s levels until November 2018 and, according to Mr Ashworth, it seems unlikely that these volumes will be maintained through 2019 unless a further decline in breeding stock numbers is to occur. "Only Spain, out of the five largest European beef herds, showed an increase in numbers. France, the UK, Ireland and Germany all showed declines. A smaller breeding herd points towards lower production in the coming months unless a further decline in the herd occurs. The volume of prime beef produced in Britain would only be maintained if carcase weights were to rise but even then as the year progresses production is likely to decline. Consequently, it seems likely that British and European beef production will fall as we move through 2019. Similarly, Australian production is expected to fall", added Mr Ashworth.
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