INTERNATIONAL

The global beef market begins 2026 in a scenario of lower supply and greater volatility

Beef

According to Rabobank's Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026, beef will experience the largest production contraction of any animal protein worldwide, in contrast to the growth in poultry and aquaculture. This trend is likely to keep prices high and solidify Brazil's role as a leading global supplier, even amidst the changing landscape of the national livestock industry.

Posted on Jan 21 ,00:30

After six consecutive years of growth, 2026 will mark the first contraction in global land-based protein production, with beef leading the decline. This reduction will be driven primarily by:

• The United States and Canada are still in the process of rebuilding their stock after years of liquidation.
• Brazil, which is beginning a reversal of the livestock cycle, with greater retention of females;
• China, which is ending a period of liquidating its stock, is now producing less meat.

As a result, Rabobank projects a  structural adjustment in the global beef supply, which keeps upward pressure on prices, especially in traditional import markets.

In North America, the picture is clear:  lower supply and historically high prices. The U.S. cattle herd has declined for six consecutive years, and although there are initial signs of heifer retention, the recovery will be slow.

• US meat production peaked in 2022 and continues on a downward trajectory.
• Domestic consumption remains strong, even with high prices.
• Imports increased in 2025 to compensate for product shortages, but are expected to stabilize in 2026.
• US exports are falling, opening up opportunities for suppliers such as Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand.

This combination of factors consolidates beef as a  premium protein  in the North American market.

In the European Union, beef production is expected  to stabilize, while the United Kingdom continues to experience a slight decline. The bloc faces:

• Structural reduction of the cattle herd;
• Environmental and regulatory pressures;
• Limitations to the expansion of production in the short term.

As a result, the EU is likely to maintain strong demand for imported meat, which will benefit Mercosur exporters, even if the initial impact of the EU-Mercosur agreement in 2026 is considered moderate.

China, which currently accounts for about  30% of global beef consumption through imports, is entering a period of adjustment. After two years of cattle liquidation, domestic production is projected to decline slightly by 2026.

The report indicates that:

• Domestic prices are expected to rise;
• Retail consumption remains resilient;
• Imports are expected  to decrease by 2% to 3%, not due to a lack of demand, but due to  limitations in global supply and higher prices.

Even so, China remains the  main destination for Brazilian beef, absorbing more than half of the country's exports.

Brazil enters 2026 at a strategic juncture. After four years of production growth, the country begins the  female retention phase, marking a turning point in the cattle cycle.

Rabobank projects that Brazilian beef production will fall between 5% and 6% in 2026, reaching approximately 10.5 million tons, a direct reflection of the retention of females to rebuild the herd.

Even with lower production, Brazil is expected to reach a new export record, estimated at 4.4 million tons, consolidating its position as:

• The world's largest exporter of beef;
• China's main supplier;
• A strategic alternative for markets with limited supply, such as the United States and Europe.

This action is supported by:

• Global demand is strong;
• Favorable exchange rate;
• Less international competition, especially from the United States.

The consequence of this scenario is a  drop in domestic consumption, estimated at between 8% and 9%, with consumers migrating towards more affordable proteins, such as chicken and pork, a common trend throughout Latin America.

However, the report highlights that specific events, such as the Club World Cup and the 2026 Brazilian election cycle, can generate temporary stimuli to consumption.

What to expect from beef prices in 2026?

With the combination of:

• Lower global supply,
• Production is falling in the main centers.
• International demand remains strong.

Rabobank projects that  meat prices will remain high throughout 2026, with less volatility than in previous cycles, but with no room for significant declines in the short term.

Beef tends to:

• Continue to lose ground in mass consumption;
• To reinforce its position as a higher-value protein;
• Increasingly dependent on productive efficiency, risk management, and market access.

The year 2026 marks a  turning point for the global beef market. In a world with reduced supply, increased health risks, regulatory pressure, and price-sensitive consumers, Brazil is emerging as a  key player in the global balance, even with lower production.

For producers, industries, and strategists, Rabobank's message is clear:  it's not just about producing more, but about producing better, accessing markets, and managing cycles in an increasingly volatile environment.

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