Times of war for the meat industry
For the meat industry, war is present on every front, from the political differences regarding trade between the US and almost everyone else to the environmental issues that pressure the producers, the “animal-terrorism” cases registered in France and Spain or the development of alternative meat products that are going to hit the market in the following years.
The US against the world
The protectionist measures that define the current policy of the US administration are turning into a disruptive element for the
food companies from the United States, China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico involved in trade between these regions.
Tariffs as retaliatory measures have been applied by each side involved in the trade war started by president Trump. US pork products, as an example, is one the most affected items in the retaliation game, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 68% in case of products sent to China.
Beef and poultry or seafood products are also affected by these measures and the dimension of future exchange of goods between the parts involved in these trade wars is uncertain, even in the light of the new US - Mexico - Canada Agreement (USMCA). The document still needs to be ratified and approved by the three countries. Meanwhile, the US is looking for new markets to deliver its meat, South Korea and Japan being two important destinations for beef and pork. At this time, thanks to the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORU S), the first signed under the Trump administration, US beef has a market share of 58%, + 8% compared to the same period last year. The biggest competitor in the Korean market is Australia, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) Korea’s Country Manager, Charlie Ko, described the local market as a tough competitive environment, especially in the imported chilled beef sector.
“The US now occupies 58% of market share (September 2017 to August 2018) – up 8% points from the same time last year. However, consumer and trade support for Australian beef remains strong,” Charlie said.
Europe looks also attractive and a new round of negotiations between Brussels and Washington could offer a better deal in delivering a larger quota of hormone- free beef.
Nevertheless, that could start a new conflict between European beef producers and the European Commission. For now, the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF) has expressed its hopes on reaching a double value of beef exports to the EU, growing from $200 million to $400 million in the following years.
As for the Chinese market, the beef segment has been quickly replaced by imports from Australia, Argentine and Uruguay, while pork is sourced from different countries that don’t pose (for now) any biosecurity risk.
Anyway, pork demand and consumption in China is another problem that raises questions in the near future as the ASF outbreaks in China, Africa and Europecould either restore the original tariffs applied for US pork products or it can push the consumers to other animal protein alternatives, such as seafood, beef, sheep or poultry.
Eating, quitting, looking for new
Meat consumption is expected to grow in the next decade due to an increase in population and that raises a question about the production sustainability and food sufficiency in different regions across the globe.
New trends appeared in the global market offering alternatives for meat and the results are starting to be observed in the statistics. Also, in Asia, where China and India are expecting a high rate of population growth, the outlook predicts an increase in value for these markets thanks to the added value of the products and not strictly by the volumes. Right now, the Indian meat market is estimated to be at $31 billion, but it could reach a value of $65 billion until 2022 if a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 20% is to be maintained all this time. 72% oh the inhabitants have non-vegetarian dietary habits and the numbers are much higher in the south part of the country.
In China, consumption trends are changing in the big cities due to the launch of plant-based protein and to the vegan and vegetarian trends introduced in this market.
In the US, at least a third of the millennials have turned into vegans and vegetarians and 60% of the population with age under 50 prefers a mixed diet.
Also, in France, during the last decade, meat consumption has decreased by 12%. Germany, a country that has a long history with meat dietary habits, is turning slowly to a mixed menu embraced by the locals.
Denmark has a certain spot on the world’s map of meat consumption with an initiative meant to help those who want to change their diets. „Quit meat” helpline is the world’s first hotline that encourages people to give up meat.
It is financed by Simple Feast, a vegan meal delivery service, and, of course, it also helps to promote vegan products.
Last statistical data shows that Danish people are consuming around 100 kilograms of meat each year.
A proxy-war on meat
From the consumer’s point of view, information regarding the risk associated with meat consumption can be confusing, the internet is looking more like a battlefield in a proxy-war filled with fake news.
The phenomenon is not ignored by the industry and different actions have been taken, from using anthropology as an example of benefits of meat consumption in the evolution of humanity to banning or requesting the ban of the “meat” label applied for alternative products.
It’s not only the internet that looks like a battlefield, small facilities in the Spanish meat industry or butcher shops in France being targeted by a new sort of radical militants.
A series of attacks reported in France and Spain have set off reactions from the industry bodies in both countries. The
number of shops targeted with graffiti or smashed windows in France has reached 50, according to Confederation Francaise de la
Boucherie, Boucherie-Charcuterie, Traiteurs (CFBCT). While in France, vandalism seems to be the resort of vegan activists, Spain has encountered a different type of violence, arson. The attacks were revendicated by the Animal Liberation Front and are part of what investigators now call „animal terrorism”. „We are concern about the damage that these events may cause in companies in the sector. It is not an isolated event since in recent days the organization has shown the intention to attack companies engaged in the marketing of meat products in the region”, president of the Asturian Association of Meat Industries (ASINCAR), Cesar García, declared.
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