US and Brazil to take advantage of the animal protein shortage
Beef is to replace pork in several markets across the globe as the African Swine Fever is spreading further through Asia. With China national pig inventory predicted to shrink by 10% at least in 2019, global meat production for 2019 is forecast to be down by 0.2% on last year, reaching336.5 million tonnes.
Expectations of reductions in Chinese and Australian output outweigh the anticipated expansions for other major producing countries. The US is expected to raise its pig production by 3.8% and increase the pig herd population to 10-year record levels, as the global volume for pork trade is to increase by 8%o 9.1 million tonnes due to the gap existing between supply and demand in the Chinese market.
Nevertheless, pork is not the only animal protein to increase its presence in the global meat trade. Beef is expected to perform this year, which may support an anticipated increased production in the US by 1.5% to 12.4 million tonnes. "This is echoed in South America, with Brazil also in a herd rebuilding phase. As such, Brazilian production could rise by 3% to over 10Mt, with favorable export outlooks and meal feed costs currently relatively affordable. Reductions in EU cattle numbers look to contribute to forecast production declines of 1.3% for the region", according to Alex Cook, Analyst for AHDB..