US turkey production reports decline in September
Analysts at USDA say that the decline in September marks 4 of the last 6 months of negative year-over-year growth, signaling a possible slowdown of production as wholesale prices have remained below historical averages.
Hatchery reports have been relatively flat compared with a year earlier, suggesting that any growth in early 2018 relative to 2017 will be minimal.
According to USDA, turkey production for 2017 is forecast at 5.997 billion pounds. The 2018 forecast is reduced 115 million pounds to 6.025 billion pounds.
Whole Turkey Prices Remain Below Historical Averages
Wholesale whole hen frozen turkey prices continue to fall below historical averages and are particularly low for the Thanksgiving season, when prices traditionally reach their annual peaks.
The latest price data covering the first week of November shows whole turkey prices at 88 cents per pound, the lowest level this year and the lowest since January 2011. The low wholesale prices have served as an indication that turkey meat demand has not kept pace with recent production.
USDA's forecast for fourth-quarter whole hen frozen turkey prices was reduced to $0.89 to $0.91, and the 2017 average is expected to be $0.97, 18-percent below 2016. Price forecasts are lowered for 2018 as well and are expected to average between $0.96 and $1.03 for the year.
Turkey Exports Increased in September
In September, turkey exports increased by 9% compared to the similar period from 2016, reaching 61 million pounds. According to USDA, this was the highest total since December of 2014, when HPAI-related trade restrictions began impacting the market.
The largest market for US turkey shipments remains Mexico, with 35 million pounds exported in September, or 58% of all U.S. shipments. Total exports for 2017 are expected to reach 618 million pounds, with an increase of 9% compared to 2016. Exports are expected to grow further in 2018 to 650 million pounds, a 5% increase over 2017.
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