USDA: Drastic cut in Chinese beef import expectations
In its updated data for 2025, the USDA reduced its beef import expectations from 3.825 million tons of carcasses to 3.4 million tons, citing lower-than-previously anticipated demand. This will be the first year of decline since the intense growth began in the middle of the last decade.
“Economic pressure and reduced household spending dampened beef consumption in both the retail and foodservice sectors. From January to May 2025, beef imports from China fell more than 10% year-over-year. Even with a possible recovery later in the year, full-year shipments are unlikely to reach 2024 levels. Trade restrictions on U.S. beef also weighed on overall import demand, albeit to a lesser extent”, he noted.
The agency forecasts that beef imports will increase slightly in 2026 due to lower domestic production. It argued that frozen beef imports will help meet demand in lower-priced market segments. However, overall growth will be limited by economic pressure and persistent weakness in demand from households and the food service sector. The projection is for an annual increase of 100,000 tons to 3.5 million tons.
USDA-Beijing projects a decline in Chinese beef production in 2026, primarily due to a lower breeding cow inventory and persistently low calving efficiency. Industry sources report that many farms reduced their breeding stock in 2024 amid prolonged losses caused by low cattle prices. These prolonged low prices, combined with widespread outflows from the sector, resulted in a significant reduction in breeding stock in 2024, a change that continues to shape herd structure and limit production potential through 2026.
Projections indicate that beef consumption in China will continue to decline in 2026, reflecting persistent pressure on household incomes and continued weakness in consumer confidence.
Industry contacts informed the USDA office in Beijing that foodservice sales in some cities fell between 30% and 50% in 2025, a sharp contraction that underscores the fragility of consumer demand. Considering that such declines occurred in a year in which GDP still grew more than 5%, a slower growth environment in 2026 is unlikely to support a recovery in beef consumption. This protein remains the most expensive in China, with average prices well above those of pork and poultry.
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