Pork production in the United States will surpass beef production in 2026, driven by a stable pork supply and a shrinking cattle herd. According to the USDA, this trend is expected to continue through 2026.
The United States projects pork production of approximately 28 billion pounds by 2026, compared to 25.547 billion pounds of beef, according to the May 2026 Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report from the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
This difference reflects the decline in the cattle herd, while the supply of pork remains abundant.
The report even projects that this difference between beef and pork production will widen even further by 2027.
According to the USDA, moderate growth in pork production is expected in the second half of 2026. Pork production during the third quarter of 2026 is projected at 6.8 billion pounds, an increase of 2.1% compared to the same period in 2025.
For the fourth quarter, production would reach 7.4 billion pounds, 1.5% more than a year earlier.
Regarding US pork exports, they are expected to reach 7.33 billion pounds in 2027, an increase of 1.4% compared to the revised 2026 exports of 7.232 billion pounds.
As in 2026, countries in the Western Hemisphere will continue to account for a growing proportion of pork exports in 2027.
Beef production for 2027 is projected at 25.31 billion pounds, a decrease of 0.9% compared to 2026. This reduction is attributed to a lower number of cattle sent to slaughter, which will only be partially offset by higher carcass weights.
From a historical perspective, according to the USDA report, beef production in 2027 would be almost 11% lower than the record reached in 2022 and would represent the lowest volume since 2016.
In addition, apparent per capita consumption of beef in the domestic market is projected to reach 59.2 pounds per person, a decrease of 1.3% compared to the previous year, although still above the averages of the last 10 and 20 years.
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