USDA: Argentine beef exports will be a record in 2025
This is because it projects a meat production of 3.175 million tons (carcass weight), 2% higher than in 2024, thanks to a slightly higher slaughter of 13.8 million heads, which will take advantage of the idle capacity that most plants currently have. The report does not foresee changes in the average slaughter weight compared to 2024.
This expected increase in slaughter is based on the fact that a moderate expansion of the herd is estimated and “a good and abundant production of calves in 2022 and 2023, which will supply the slaughter in 2025.” Meanwhile, the calf harvest expected for 2025 reaches 14.8 million heads, in line with the two previous seasons.
As for feedlots, he expects them to be active in 2025, “as most contacts believe that finished cattle prices will improve, especially with a recovery of the national economy, likely better FOB prices and cheap corn prices.” In addition, “fewer restrictions on beef exports are expected to encourage the fattening of steers at heavier weights” to gain efficiency.
However, the report estimates that the stock in 2025 will end up virtually unchanged compared to the previous two years: "Economic conditions are not yet fully in place to encourage a rebuilding of the herd and the current culling of females is close to the equilibrium level".
The report also highlighted (in line with a recent document from the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture) that domestic consumption of beef, although high at a global level, is reaching an all-time low, although it estimates that in 2025 it could recover by 1.5% compared to 2024.
The USDA report states that "local exporters are quite optimistic and believe that exports could be close to the 1 million tonne mark in the next few years". As for export destinations, it indicates that China is expected to remain the main destination by volume, although beef exports to the United States are expected to remain strong given Argentine’s current import demand and competitive prices.
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